The high level of agricultural product inflation is expected to ease

Since September, the impact of extreme weather at home and abroad has weakened, and prices of agricultural products at home and abroad have dropped significantly. Institutions began to favor industrial products with stronger financial attributes, while agricultural products that lost their hype were temporarily cold. Experts said that with the fall in agricultural prices, inflation is expected to ease.

Recently, global agricultural product prices have generally declined. Last week, the main contract prices of corn, wheat and soybean futures on the Chicago Commodity Exchange fell by 1.2%, 4.7% and 3.2%, respectively. In September, domestic corn fell 1.9%, soybean meal dropped 6.0%, Chicago corn fell 5.4%, US soybeans fell 9.0%, and US soybean meal fell 8.5%.

However, international organizations have also declined their enthusiasm for agricultural products. Data show that in the week of October 2nd, the non-commercial net long position of corn futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was 318,539 contracts, an increase of 156 contracts, but it was significantly lower than the previous year's high of 348,000 units set on September 4. Non-commercial net long positions in wheat futures were 54145 contracts, a decrease of 5134 contracts compared to the previous quarter, and non-commercial net long positions in soybean futures were 213,487 contracts, a decrease of 4,199 contracts from the previous quarter. Both of the net long positions were at a high adjustment period.

“The recent short-selling by institutions is mainly due to the gradual release of the bullish factors reported by the US Department of Agriculture during the previous period. The market lacks new hot spots for speculation and it belongs to bullishness. It is also a period of concentrated listing of agricultural products from September to October, and the short-term market has plenty of supply. Pressure, so choose this point of time to digest the previous profit-making, but also to prepare for the future market." Dongxing Futures analyst Zhang Junling believes.

Jiang Xingchun, general manager of Guoyuan Haiqin Futures Research and Development Center, said that since the first three quarters, especially US soybean, were affected by South American production cuts and domestic arid climate, prices have risen sharply and industrial products have been weak during the same period. In the fourth quarter, a large number of agricultural products went public and the industrial economy improved. Institutions began to sell short-to-the-large agricultural products to macro-hedging such as non-ferrous metals. In addition, as the economy stabilized, countries’ control over price increases became apparent, and inflation was not tolerated during economic recovery. This has led to the adjustment of agricultural product prices under seasonal market pressure.

Domestic inflation or falling <br> <br> outlook for agricultural products, experts say, on the whole, the fourth quarter will remain agricultural adjust the trend, but too bearish undesirable.

In terms of subcategories, Shanghai-based mid-term analyst Jing Cheng believes that after the report of the US Department of Agriculture on the report in October, the trend of beans before the end of the year may be better grasped. For cereals, the correction of the price of corn and early rice may continue until the end of November. In December, the price may show a more obvious rebound. Early wheat fell faster, and it may rebound and oscillate later. As for the white sugar in soft goods, the idea of ​​short and long sky is still the same. Before the full opening of Guangxi, it is expected that the low level will rebound. However, in November and December, the price will remain under pressure when it enters the centralized open-squeezing period, unless a new round of sugar collection and storage policies are introduced at that time.

With the short-term decline in the prices of agricultural products, the market expects that the level of domestic inflation will decline. Zhao Yan, China Everbright Futures analyst, said that the Bureau of Statistics recently announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September. After the August CPI index rebounded slightly due to the sharp rise in food prices, it is expected that the price increase of food products will be reduced this month in the case of domestic prices of agricultural products falling in September, which will cause the year-on-year increase of CPI to return below 2% again.

In line with the trend of overseas agricultural product futures, the prices of agricultural products such as vegetables and eggs also fell in September. According to the national system of monitoring prices of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials, since late September, the price of eggs in the country has been steadily falling, and the rate of deceleration has accelerated in recent days. As of October 1, the price has dropped for three consecutive days. Compared with September 20, the national average price of eggs dropped by nearly 1.0% on October 1. Affected by this, the market predicts that the year-on-year increase of China's CPI in September will be lower than 2% again.