Can food varieties lead the upsurge?

Ale up 1.66%, has achieved four consecutive yang; corn rose 0.69%, has been rising after the year. The rise of the two major grain varieties has brought a bright light to the commodity market at the beginning of the Year of the Dragon. According to the analysis, during the Spring Festival, farmers stopped selling their goods, strong downstream demand for supplemental warehouses, and weather conditions may have caused the yield to decline, which has promoted the recent rise in strong wheat and may continue to maintain its strong position. At the same time, purchases and sales activities are not complete. The increase in feed use in the recovery and aquaculture industry also supports the demand for corn. Experts said that the rise in grain varieties is still more because last year's trend is sluggish. There is currently a large demand for supplementary growth. The sustainability of the market remains to be seen. In the short-term, there will be a certain stimulatory effect on the A-shares agricultural product sector.

Stronger growth in strong-agri-corns On Tuesday, the strong wheat futures and corn futures continued their eye-catching performance and continued to rise. Zhengzhou strong wheat futures main 1209 contract opening price of 2538 yuan / ton, the highest price of 2581 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 2538 yuan / ton, the closing price of 2574 yuan / ton, volume increased 50542 hand positions increased by 43730 hand, up 42 yuan / Ton or 1.66%. Judging from the recent trend, Ale has already gone out of the trend of Si Lian Yang, which has risen more than 4% since January 19 and hit a new high in 9 weeks.

From the position perspective, the top 20 Masukura 16,496 hands to 62,700 hands, the top 20 Masukura 18939 to 89,900 hands. Judging from the seats, SDIC Futures with a spot background added another 4238 short-handed singles, ranking first in the empty single volume of 18,600 hands. These indications indicate that the strong recent strong wheat has attracted the attention of a lot of off-site funds, of which the long-term capital should be dominated by speculative funds, and funds with industrial backgrounds will take this opportunity to increase the hedge position.

Judging from the spot market, on the 30th, the wheat market in Hebei and Tianjin was stable, with the local third-tier wheat traders delisting at 1.04-1.05 yuan per jin, and the flour mills entering the factory at 1.06-1.07 yuan per jin, which showed little change from week to week. Large flour enterprises in the surrounding areas are relatively well-stocked, and self-employed or enterprises are expected to resume trade in the 15th year. Shandong Linyi wheat market remained stable. At present, the local wheat grain warehouse delivery price is 1.07 yuan/kg, and the price of feed into the feed mill is about 1.09 yuan/kg. There is not much change in the weekly price ratio. The grain warehouse is slowly out of storage, and farmers and traders enter the market in small quantities.

It is corn that is accompanied by strong wheat. The main opening price of Dalian corn futures yesterday was 2,321 yuan/ton, with the highest price at 2,340 yuan/ton, the lowest price at 2,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 2,337 yuan/ton. The volume increased by 72,958 hands, and the open interest increased by 43,502 lots, up by 16 yuan/ton or 0.69%. From the trend point of view, the strength of corn has been extended for more than two months, starting from the low point of 2177 points in November last year, the current increase has been more than 7%, in recent days has shown an accelerated pattern of rising.

Judging from the spot market, on the 31st, the corn prices in the northeastern ports were strong and the volume was light. The mainstream price of the port is 2380 yuan/ton (25%, 15% moisture), Heilongjiang grain source is 2330 yuan/ton (30%, 15% moisture), which is the same as that of the 30th. The port's sporadic purchase price is 2290-2300. RMB/ton, the current port closing fee has reached 44 yuan/ton.

Food products lead the upsurge In the lukewarm trend of commodity markets since the Spring Festival opened, the consistently low-key food varieties have also made the market more attractive. However, experts generally believe that the rise of these species is more of a compensatory growth behavior, and whether the continuation remains to be seen.

“There are five short-term bullish factors for ale.” According to Jing Cheng, a mid-term analyst in Shanghai, the current situation is that farmers are still stopping grain sales. Generally speaking, farmers will not start selling grain until after the first lunar January 15th. The recent uptrend is relatively good, and there will be a certain amount of reluctant sales mentality at that time, which will result in a tight grain supply for ale; Secondly, the State Reserve Bank auction auction will have to wait at least until next week, which will also cause supply shortages; From the demand point of view, although the demand of the flour mill is not particularly strong, the inventory before the Spring Festival only lasted for one to two weeks, making the demand for post-holiday stocks strong; fourth, the amount of corn used for feed in molds in North China. Will reduce and enhance the replacement of wheat; Fifth, the recent weather may affect the yield.

Huang Ting, a futures analyst in the new century (12.62, -0.10, -0.79%), said that the rise in ale was mainly due to the low price of commodities, especially corn, which has been rising for a longer period of time, resulting in strong The recent start of wheat. However, from the fundamental point of view, there is not much good, and it needs the drive of other commodities to continue rising.

Regarding the rise of corn futures, Yu Chengcheng stated that, firstly, mildew will reduce the amount of maize used in North China for feed, but after the Spring Festival, the South may use more corn in the Northeast, and the quality of Northeast corn is still acceptable. Second, the original market expected that the off-season of the breeding industry did not appear to have occurred. Instead, due to the increase in the number of piglets in the first period and the increase in the amount of livestock, the use of feed increased.

Experts said whether the sustainability of the market for grain varieties remains to be seen. In the short-term, there will be a certain stimulatory effect on the A-share agricultural product sector.