The national pork and hog prices are both up nearly 80%

Driven by the cost and supply and demand, pork prices and slaughter hog prices have hit record highs recently. The profits of hog breeding have also exceeded 600 yuan/header, creating a good performance environment for listed companies in pig breeding, Part A The company said it wants to enter the pig breeding industry. The industry expects hog prices to remain high for some time to come, but with the advent of the summer off-season and the gradual increase in supply, pig prices are expected to fall slightly.

The low price of pigs hit record highs After entering the Dragon Boat Festival, the trend of rising pig prices has not only slowed but has accelerated. According to the latest data from the China Live Hog Warning Network, the current national pork price is 24.67 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 75%, which has exceeded the 2008 high.

Also breaking the historical high is the hog price. Last week, the average price of slaughter pigs in the country rose to 17.68 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 84.74%. It has exceeded the highest point in April 2008 for two consecutive weeks, hitting a record high; the national piglet price rose to 39.15 yuan/kg, a week. It rose by 7.32%, up 155.6% year-on-year, and it was only one step away from the highest point in April 2008.

The industry pointed out that the sharp rise in the hog market was due to the support of a substantial increase in feed costs. Second, due to weather and animal epidemics at the end of last year and this year, the number of live pigs and fertile sows had declined, affecting the supply of live pigs.

It is understood that the cost of feed accounts for about 70% of the cost of live pigs. The current price of corn, which is the main feed ingredient, is 2.23 yuan/kg, which is up nearly 10% year-on-year, and it also reached the high point of the past two years. In addition, the price of piglets has risen, and the increase in labor, transportation, epidemic prevention, and hydropower has also pushed up the cost of raising the animals.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture, in May 2011, the total number of live pigs in the country was 452.8 million heads, a slight increase of 0.80% from the previous month and an increase of 4.40% year-on-year; of these, 47.1 million were capable of multiplying sows, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.21% and a growth of 0.32 points month-on-month. %. Previously, there was a decline in the number of sows kept in stock for four consecutive months.

It is worth noting that in the future or a slight pullback, although the pig price hits a record high and the profitability of pig raising has also increased significantly, the actual profit of the current 634 yuan/head pig has not yet broken the high of 800 yuan/head in April 2008.

Feng Yonghui, an analyst of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, said that this reflects a large gap between the supply and demand of born pigs, but the proportion of rising feed costs is also larger. The increase in costs and the current supply and demand gap still supports pork price fluctuations of 8.5 yuan/kg or more. With the arrival of summer, demand will continue to fall and pig prices may be slightly adjusted in the short term.

The continued rise in the price of pork has aggravated market concerns about inflation. The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China has detailed measures to support the production of live pigs and urged all localities to speed up the implementation of policies for the development of central stable hog production, focus on improving the reproductive performance of sows and the survival rate of piglets, and provide technical training and guidance services for medium and small-scale farmers. Strengthen prevention and control of live pig diseases.

The industry believes that the ministry of agriculture's support measures for refining the hog market focus on stabilizing aquaculture confidence and increasing market supply capacity. The impact on the pig market may not be present, but will gradually emerge in the later stages.

From the downstream perspective of the industry, the significant increase in the profits of pig breeding has a significant effect on the performance of the listed companies in the breeding industry this year. Analysts said that in the context of the sharp rise in the price of pigs, the booming aquaculture industry is on the rise, and the feed industry is expected to usher in a good situation in the second half of the year.

In addition, the high boom in the live pig market has also increased the enthusiasm of pig raising for all parties. The listed company of A-stock hog breeding has rapidly “expanded” and some listed companies that had not been involved in hog farming have also begun to transition. For example, Jin Xinnong (002548), which is engaged in pig feed processing and production, has publicly stated that it wants to extend the industrial chain and enter the high-end pig breeding industry.