Meat egg gains tide CPI to meet the turning point? October CPI lower?

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.1% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations. This is the second consecutive month of decline after the first drop in August. In October, the price of pork known as “kidnapping” China’s CPI fell sharply. At the same time, the prices of agricultural products such as eggs and vegetables all declined. With the drop in food prices, can CPI in October go lower? Analysts gave a positive reply to this, but at the same time, they said inflationary pressures should not be underestimated. Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in public recently that since August, the general level of price increases began to fall, the characteristics of the price run inflection points have been confirmed during the year, and it is expected that the CPI increase in the next two months of this year can be controlled below 5.0%.

Egg prices like low tide

In the new market statistics, vegetable prices have fallen significantly in recent days, and egg prices have fallen by nearly 10% from the previous month. The trend is likened to the low tide of seawater.

At 5 o'clock in the afternoon on the 22nd, in an ordinary community market in the Liufang area of ​​Chaoyang, vendors selling vegetables at various stalls are busy collecting money for people who buy vegetables. Here, the price of eggs has dropped to 4.7 yuan per catty, which is more than 20% cheaper than the price of nearly 6 yuan per catty at the end of May. The prices of eggs, pork, and some vegetables have also declined in varying degrees.

Miss Zhao, who is buying food, said that the most noticeable recent experience was the price cuts for eggs and pork. As for vegetable prices, although they are slightly cheaper, they still feel expensive.

According to statistics from Xinfadi Market, the largest agricultural product wholesale market in Beijing, the price of vegetables has dropped significantly in recent days, and the price of eggs has dropped by nearly 10% compared with the same period of last month.

According to Liu Tong, head of the new market statistics department, the prices of leafy vegetables, solanaceous vegetables, and root vegetables dropped in different degrees in October. The price of Chinese cabbage dropped from 0.3-0.36 yuan/kg in the previous week to 0.2-0.26 yuan/kg in the previous week, a decrease of 30%. According to the market’s merchants, the current price of the producing area has dropped to 0.07-0.13 yuan/kg, which is the lowest price in two years.

In addition, small canola, pakchoi, parsley, spinach, and celery last week had a 20%-50% drop from the previous week.

"Currently, it is one of the periods when the price of mid-season vegetables is lowest in the middle of the year. If there is such a low price, it will have to wait until the next 5-6 months," said Liu Tong.

In addition to vegetables, the price of eggs also decreased significantly from last month. On October 21st, the wholesale price of eggs at the Xinfadi market was 4.17 yuan/kg, which was 9.54% lower than the 4.61 yuan/kg on September 21st.

Liu Tong introduced that at present, the price of eggs is similar to that of seawater, and it is expected that the trend of egg prices will fluctuate in the later period.

Post-holiday pork price reduction

The monitoring shows that since the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of pork has been on a downward trend as a whole, and the speed has been accelerating since the National Day. More than 80% of the country's meat prices have declined in the provinces, regions and cities.

According to Xinhua News Agency, since the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of pork in more than 80% of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China has dropped. About 60% of the prices of eggs in provinces, regions, and cities have dropped to less than RMB 5 per catty.

The Xinhua News Agency’s national price monitoring system for agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials indicates that since the Mid-Autumn Festival, pork prices have been on a downward trend as a whole. After the National Day, the price of pork has slowed down. Compared with September 12, on October 21st, the prices of pigs with hip and pork belly decreased by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively. From a regional perspective, more than 80% of the country's provinces, municipalities and municipalities have reduced pork prices.

In addition, since mid-September, the nation’s egg prices have continued to fall and began to stabilize in late October. Compared with September 12, the national egg price fell 5.8% on October 22. About 60% of the province’s egg prices fell To less than 5 yuan per catty.

According to news released by the National Development and Reform Commission on the 11th, in the middle and early September, the prices of pork and eggs continued to rise in the previous period, and both rose to historical highs, and prices fell back into late.

The price of pork, known as the "kidnapping" of China's CPI, began to fall sharply in late September. According to some pork wholesalers, in general, the weather has turned cooler after October each year, and the demand for meat has increased. However, the price of pork on the market has not risen due to the increase in demand this year. At present, the supply of live pigs on the market is very sufficient, and some farmers are selling concentrated pigs, leading to a continuous decline in pork prices.

The reporter learned that on the supply of live pigs, the Ministry of Agriculture has detected that the number of live pigs has increased for seven consecutive months, reaching 47.15 million heads, an increase of 3.76% over the same period of last year and an increase of 1.29% from the previous month. Among them, the number of breeding sows was 48.45 million, an increase of 3.09% from the previous month, and it increased for five consecutive months.

Analysts pointed out that from the point of view of live pigs and fertile sows, it is expected that the slaughter of live pigs and pork supply in the market will be restored in the next few months, laying the foundation for the fall in pork prices.

Rice, noodles, oil prices drop slightly

The wholesale market price of rice on the Yuquan Road market has been falling all the way, and the prices of beans in the international futures markets have dropped significantly, leading to lower edible oil prices.

In addition to meat and vegetables, there are rice, noodles, and oil.

In the Yuquan Road market, the largest specialized grain and oil wholesale market in Beijing, since October, with the continuous increase in the number of new rice in Northeast China, the wholesale price of rice has fallen all the way. Long-grain rice (50 pounds) per bag from the national holiday is 128 yuan. It fell to 126 yuan on the 21st. Since the flour market in September has been raised, the overall flour price is in a relatively stable trend.

In addition, due to the apparent decline in the prices of beans in the international futures market last month, the overall market performance of edible oil has declined this month.

The relevant person in charge of the Yuquan Road market analysis said that as far as grain and oil products are concerned, since China’s summer grain has achieved “eight consecutive years” this year, the northeastern rice harvest in autumn is a foregone conclusion and there is sufficient supply in the raw grain market, which will form a certain restriction on the rise in grain prices. . In respect of edible oil, the apparent decline in the international futures market in September was transmitted to domestic stocks, and the price of small-packaged soybean oil generally fell.

“Overall, the impact of grain and oil prices on the October CPI will be reduced.” The person in charge predicts that, together with the declining influence factors of the tails, the CPI in October will be between 5.7% and 5.8%.

Analysts see lower October CPI

Analysts expect the October CPI increase to be less than 6%, but inflationary pressures remain serious. Officials of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the characteristics of the price run inflection point have been confirmed.

On October 14, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in September, the national CPI rose by 6.1% year-on-year, lower than market expectations. Among them, the price of food products rose by 13.4%, affecting the overall price level by 4.05 percentage points, which is still the main driver of maintaining the high level of CPI.

In terms of specific categories, food prices rose by 11.9% in food; meat and poultry products rose by 28.4%, of which pork prices rose by 43.5%.

Zhao Qingming, Ph.D. in economics, believes that CPI rose 6.1% year-on-year in September, and that the main driving force behind price increases was still food. Its price rose by 1.1% month-on-month and 0.5% from the previous month. Taking into account the production seasons such as vegetables and fruits, food prices may continue to rise. The annual CPI will hardly fall within 5%.

Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities, predicts that with the end of autumn harvest and the holiday effect, food prices and overall inflation will fall significantly in October, October CPI increase will be less than 6%, but it is difficult to return About 3% level.

Ma Wenfeng, a special economic analyst at Beijing Oriental Agri Consulting Co., Ltd. and Xinhua News Agency, said that considering that food consumption accounted for 41% of China's rural residents’ consumer spending and 35.7% of urban residents’ consumption, the fall in food prices pushed the CPI down, but it would still be in High position.

“It is expected that the prices of agricultural products will remain at a low level before the winter comes. However, inflationary pressures are still serious, and circulation costs remain high.” Ma Wenfeng believes that once the weather turns cold and transportation is difficult, this will be the main driving force for the price increase of agricultural products. He expects CPI to drop to 5.4% in October.

According to media reports, Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stated publicly that since August, the rise in total price levels began to fall. The characteristics of the price running inflection point have been confirmed during the year. It is expected that the consumer price index (CPI) can be controlled at 5.0 after two months of this year. %the following.